French President Emmanuel Macron appears to have convinced Indonesia to place follow-on orders for Rafale and Scorpene submarines as it seeks to deepen defense and trade ties with Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Macron arrived in Jakarta, Indonesia, from Vietnam on May 27 for the second leg of his three-country Southeast Asia tour, which also includes Singapore, and aims to project France as a balancing power in the Indo-Pacific.
After a meeting with his Indonesian counterpart and other ministers on May 28, Macron told reporters that France and Indonesia have signed a preliminary defense agreement that could pave the way for new orders of military equipment from Paris, including Rafale fighter jets and Scorpene submarines.
“I am delighted that the letter of intent signed today could open up a new perspective with new orders for Rafales, Scorpenes, light frigates,” Macron said at a joint press conference sitting alongside General Probowo Subianto.
The statement confirmed an assertion previously made by the Indonesian Defense Minister, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddis. “We will sign a letter of intent together with other ministers, focusing on strengthening Indonesia-France defense ties, particularly in strategic weapons systems,” including Rafale and Scorpenes, Sjafrie had told reporters on May 27.
Although the specifics of the new ‘preliminary’ defense pact were not disclosed by Subianto at the joint press conference, he emphasized that France is one of Indonesia’s leading partners in upgrading military equipment, including technology transfer and joint production. Currently, there is no information available on whether Indonesia can secure technology transfer and local production for the Rafale if a supplementary order is placed.
Indonesia has traditionally operated Russian fighter jets. However, in 2022, it signed a US$8.1 billion defense deal that included 42 Rafale fighter jets.
Later, it announced that it would purchase 13 long-range air surveillance radars from France’s Thales in 2023, and two “Scorpene” submarines from the French state-owned shipyard Naval Group in 2024. Thus, ushering in a new era of procurement that favors France.
Notably, Dassault’s chief, Eric Trappier, is part of the French delegation that will meet with the Indonesian President and ministers to discuss arms cooperation. In fact, Dassault Aviation shares registered a 3.4% climb.
Indonesia is yet to receive its first Rafale combat aircraft. Earlier, Mohamad Tonny Harjono, the head of the Indonesian Air Force, stated in February that six aircraft would land in Indonesia in the first half of 2026.
More Rafales Or More Diversification?
Last year, some reports suggested that Dassault Aviation was pushing for Indonesia to increase its Rafale fleet to 100 units as part of a technology transfer agreement with PT Dirgantara Indonesia. However, this could not be verified at the time due to the limited information available from either side.
On the contrary, Indonesia was known to be exploring other alternatives to modernise its aging air fleet, which consists mainly of Russian Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 aircraft, British Hawk 109/209 aircraft, and US-made F-5 Tiger, and diversify it at the same time to prevent over-reliance on a single source.
The Indonesian government inked a memorandum of understanding with Boeing in 2022 to acquire up to 24 F-15EX fighters during a visit by Prabowo Subianto to the United States.
In a press statement published at the time, Subianto said, “We are pleased to announce our commitment to procure the critical F-15EX fighter capability for Indonesia. This state-of-the-art fighter will protect and secure our nation with its advanced capabilities.”
President Prabowo, the Defense Minister of Indonesia at the time, stated in August 2023, while signing the MoU, that the F-15 purchase plan had entered an advanced stage, pending government approval.
Since an MoU does not automatically translate into an agreement, Boeing recently sweetened the offer for Indonesia by promising that if Indonesia decides to buy the F-15EX fighters, the company will produce 85% of the aircraft locally. This commitment was made by Boeing South East Asia President Penny Burtt during a media briefing on April 15.
“Should Indonesia choose [to purchase] the F-15EX, Boeing will deliver on its 85 per cent local content and offset commitments, aligned with national defence and industrial priorities,” Burtt told reporters. Boeing wants local businesses to be involved in the supply chain, training, maintenance, repair, and operations of the fighter jet. Referring to the terms of trade, Burtt said, “We haven’t heard any specific requests from Indonesia.”
Besides Rafale, Indonesia is also engaged in the co-development of the KF-21 fighter jet with South Korea. However, it is facing financial constraints that have prompted discussions to reassess its financial commitments to the project and brought Jakarta’s participation in the program under scrutiny.
If a French, an American, and a South Korean fighter were not enough, the country has also been engaged in talks with Russia for the potential acquisition of the Su-35 fighter jet. In January 2025, Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Sergei Tolchenov stated that the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet deal with Jakarta remained “on the table.”
In April, Jakarta expressed interest in the Turkish KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet and Turkish submarines during a visit to Turkey, where the two sides signed a cooperation agreement on defence matters.
More recently, local Indonesian media reported that the country is also weighing the possibility of acquiring the Chinese J-10C fighter. When asked if the purchase was being considered, Marshal Mohamad Tonny Harjono said, “We are considering it,” adding that acquiring a major weapon system was not an easy decision.
Nonetheless, if France succeeds in convincing Indonesia to place another Rafale order, it is unlikely that the fiscally constrained country will have the capacity to buy the Boeing F-15EX or a Russian Su-35 or invest in the Turkish KAAN. Indonesia’s proposed defense budget for 2025 saw a 6% decline from the previous year, and its overall defense spending remains below 1% of its GDP, even below smaller countries like Singapore.
For Dassault, this would come as yet another shot in the arm, as it eyes a new order even though it is yet to complete deliveries of previous ones.
No Suspicion Against Rafale In Indonesia
Notably, the Indonesian Defense Minister’s stated interest in committing to more French Rafale jets comes days after the Chinese media claimed that the Indonesian leadership may have been forced to rethink its Rafale purchase in the wake of claims that Pakistan downed three Indian Rafale jets using its J-10C during the latest Indo-Pakistan conflict.
The pro-China, Hong Kong-based SCMP said in a report earlier this month that Indonesia’s bet on Rafale jets is facing scrutiny after Pakistan claimed to have shot down three of the same aircraft used by India, raising questions in Jakarta about the cost, capability, and strategic logic behind the US$8.1 billion deal.
These reports were refuted by Indonesia shortly after. Dave Laksono, a member of Commission I at the House of Representatives, which oversees defense, defended the government’s decision to buy Rafales, saying that any “unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system”.
“In modern military history, even the most advanced jets such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22 have experienced incidents of being shot down or crashed due to certain tactical conditions,” Laksono said. Therefore, the performance of the Rafale cannot be measured by just one incident that has not even been fully confirmed.
Needless to say, Pakistan’s claims remain unsubstantiated more than two weeks after a ceasefire came into effect. Although the shares of Dassault Aviation initially declined based on these reports, which were greatly amplified by Chinese and Western media, the impact has been minimal on countries that operate the aircraft or have signed a deal for its purchase. Indonesia, for one, might want to place additional orders.
All eyes are now on the meeting taking place between the two sides.
