The Times of India (ToI) reports that a high-powered committee has outlined a roadmap for the accelerated capability enhancement of the Indian Air Force (IAF), aiming to bridge operational gaps within a set timeframe.
The plan emphasizes greater private sector involvement to support DRDO and defence PSUs. Key priorities include raising squadron strength from 30 to 42.5 and inducting force multipliers like AEW&CS and aerial tankers to enhance operational reach and situational awareness.
IAF View Point
Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, the Chief of the Air Staff of the Indian Air Force (IAF), recently emphasized the urgent need to bolster the IAF’s fighter aircraft strength by adding approximately 40 aircraft annually.
During his address at the Chanakya Dialogues conclave on February 28, 2025, in New Delhi, themed “Bharat 2047: Atmanirbhar In War,” Singh stated that the IAF is “very badly off in numbers” and highlighted that an internal study conducted by the IAF concluded that it must induct around 35 to 40 fighter jets each year.
This figure accounts for three key requirements: addressing the existing shortfall in fighter squadrons, replacing aging aircraft scheduled for phase-out within the next five to ten years, and ensuring a steady pipeline to sustain operational capability.
He noted, “We have fleets that will be phased out in the next five to 10 years. Those fleets will have to be replaced with new aircraft, and we already have vacancies available (shortfall). We are looking at 35 to 40 aircraft a year being produced somewhere.”
The CAS pointed out that Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has committed to delivering 24 Tejas Mk-1A jets annually starting in 2025, alongside some Su-30MKI, bringing the total to nearly 30 per year from HAL alone.
To bridge the remaining gap, he advocated for greater private sector involvement, suggesting that an additional 12 to 18 aircraft could be produced annually through partnerships under the “Make in India” initiative.
According to the ToI, one option before the MoD would be to progress “the long-pending project to manufacture 114 new 4.5-generation fighters, at an initial estimate of Rs 1.25 lakh crore, with foreign collaboration.”
The Imperative To Think Ahead
It is encouraging to see that concrete steps are being planned to halt and reverse the steady decline in the IAF’s squadron strength.
The longer the borders, the greater the number of aircraft needed to prevent airspace violations. No matter how advanced a fighter jet is, defending a vast airspace requires sufficient numbers.
To intercept an intrusion effectively, aircraft must reach the incursion point in time. A fighter jet with a 1,000 km range cannot single-handedly defend a 1,000 km border.
Given the expanse of our hostile borders, the need for 42.5 squadrons is unquestionable. In fact, recent events in Bangladesh suggest that the IAF’s authorized strength may need to be revised upward.
Adding 4.5-Gen Foreign OEM Built Fighters
While there can be no doubt about the need to rapidly add fighters to the IAF inventory in order to restore established squadron strength, the wisdom of adding 4.5 gen fighters from a foreign vendor is questionable.
The IAF already has 4.5-gen fighters in its inventory, and HAL / ADA will be rolling out 4.5-gen fighters—LCA Mk-1A and Mk-2—in large numbers over the next 10 years. HAL and ADA are also working on the 5th-gen AMCA fighter, with operational induction planned to start in 2035.
So the question is, why plan to add a 4.5-gen fighter from a foreign vendor to the IAF inventory? Technologically, we gain nothing. More importantly, the planned induction completely ignores trends in combat aviation, particularly the potential of stealthy combat drones that can penetrate adversary airspace and take out air defence systems.
Stealthy Combat Drones
Several major projects worldwide are focused on developing stealth combat drones that can operate under the control of stealth or non-stealth motherships to penetrate contested airspace and deliver weapon loads.
United States
XQ-58A Valkyrie (Kratos Defense) – A low-cost, stealthy drone designed to operate alongside fighters like the F-35 and F-22. It can conduct strike missions, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance.
Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat – Developed with Australia, this loyal wingman drone is designed to operate in tandem with manned aircraft, providing extended strike and sensor capabilities.
Europe
Dassault nEUROn (France-led, European collaboration) – A stealth UCAV demonstrator aimed at testing autonomous combat capabilities and deep penetration missions.
BAE Systems Tempest & LANCA (UK) – Tempest’s “Loyal Wingman” concept involves stealth drones operating alongside manned fighters for force multiplication.
China
GJ-11 (Sharp Sword) – A stealth UCAV optimized for deep strike missions, likely capable of working with manned aircraft.
Russia
S-70 Okhotnik-B – A large, stealthy UCAV designed to operate alongside Su-57 fighters, extending their strike and reconnaissance reach.
Russia’s Okhotnik-B has already been deployed in combat as part of Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine.
It’s likely that the above major powers will operationally induct combat drones within the next 10 years, if not earlier.
India’s Ghatak UCAV
DRDO’s Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) is developing the Ghatak UCAV, a stealthy, autonomous combat drone designed for deep-strike missions, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare. Featuring a flying wing design for enhanced stealth, Ghatak will be powered by a dry Kaveri engine to minimize its thermal signature.
A scaled-down demonstrator, SWiFT, has already undergone testing. Ghatak is expected to operate alongside manned fighters, penetrating contested airspace and delivering precision-guided weapons.
Once operational, it will significantly enhance India’s indigenous combat drone capabilities, complementing platforms like the Tejas and future AMCA fighters.
Foreign Collaboration For Ghatak
DRDO now has the expertise to offer next-generation combat systems rather than playing catch-up. However, delivering a combat-ready Ghatak UCAV within the next decade will require collaboration with a foreign vendor experienced in drone warfare. Without external expertise, timely delivery will be a challenge.
DRDO’s past capability projections warrant caution. When AMCA was first proposed in 2009, its requirements far exceeded available technology—sensor fusion, stealth shaping, RF-absorbing coatings, and supercruise engines were all lacking. As a result, AMCA is unlikely to be operational before 2035 or later.
For Ghatak to succeed, early-stage foreign collaboration is essential to bridge technological gaps and ensure timely delivery.
Future Combat Readiness & Manufacturing
The IAF requires 42.5 squadrons for optimal force readiness and should plan for future expansion. However, domestic fighter aircraft production is limited to 30 units annually—a capacity that needs to increase by at least 10–12 aircraft per year.
While the MoD is considering a private-sector manufacturing line for a 4.5-gen fighter, a better approach would be to invest in heavy stealth combat drones.
Prioritizing UCAVs over manned fighters will not only restore IAF’s combat strength but also future-proof its capabilities in an era of autonomous warfare.
- Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
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