Turkmenistan, nicknamed the ‘Hermit Kingdom’ of Central Asia, is poised to alter the European Union’s energy import pattern. The implosion of the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1991 led to the declaration of independence by the Central Asian states. Among former Soviet Republics, Turkmenistan became the only country to adopt a policy of ‘isolation’ and minimal interaction with its neighbours.
At one point, its political leaders even considered making their country a neutral state like Switzerland.
But in an era of globalization, Turkmenistan realized it had to come out from its shell, restructure its economic policy, and participate in the world economic order.
Energy Resources
Turkmenistan was aware of its huge energy resources. During the Soviet era, scientists and geologists confirmed the existence of a huge quantity of natural gas under the sands of Turkmenistan.
However, for unknown reasons, this valuable energy source’s exploration, exploitation, and marketing have not been undertaken profitably.
Perhaps inadequate funds, lack of technical expertise, and the absence of an effective energy policy contributed to the de-prioritization of gas as the mainstay of the Turkmenistan economy.
Experts estimate Turkmenistan possessing the world’s fifth-largest proven natural gas reserves. However, until recently, Ashgabat had been reluctant to strike deals to send gas westward, as most of its exports would move towards Russia or China.
Commentators believe that Turkmenistan’s leadership was wary of Western influences once their energy cartels spread their fangs. One regional observer recently described Turkmenistan as “arguably the second most insular state in the world after North Korea.”
TAPI
The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–
Conceptualised around 1995 in the Turkmenistan capital Ashgabat, the project was met with many obstructions and political interference.
The project remained mired in controversies. After a regime change in Afghanistan in 2021, no progress was reported in its completion. India and Pakistan, too, seem to have lost interest in the project.
New Initiative
Shedding its long-standing image of an isolated state, over the past few months, Ashgabat has vigorously initiated a long-term deal that could be a game changer for its economy and could also significantly alter the European Union’s energy-import pattern.
EurasiaNet reported on March 6 that Turkmenistan has initiated a gas swap arrangement with Iran and Turkey. This will be the first time Turkmenistan gas will flow westward, bypassing Russia.
Analysing the impact of Turkmenistan’s new initiative, economic experts think its success could significantly diversify Europe’s energy sources and reshape the global energy market.
A swap arrangement with Iran and Turkey is the lynchpin of Turkmenistan’s gas export diversification push. Ashgabat is expected to supply Ankara with 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas by the end of 2025, with annual supplies slated to increase to 2 bcm in the following years. The gas started flowing on March 1, 2025.
The Trans/Caspian gas pipeline, as it is called, would run under the Caspian Sea from Türkmenbaşy to the Sangachal Terminal, where it would connect with the existing pipeline to Erzurum in Turkey, which in turn would be connected to the Southern Gas Corridor, thus taking natural gas from Turkmenistan to Central Europe.
A notable aspect of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline is that it is Turkey’s first deal in which Turkmenistan gas heads Westward along a route that bypasses Russia. Experts say that the volume of Turkmenistan exports to Turkey and beyond to the European Union could reach 65 bcm within the next 25 years.
Strategic Significance
Under the swap arrangement, Turkmenistan supplies only modest gas volumes to Turkey. However, its strategic importance lies in strengthening Europe’s energy diversification. Rauf Mammadov, a political analyst, told Anadolu News Agency that the swap arrangement “potentially provides the European nations with greater leverage in future energy negotiations, particularly if Russian gas supplies are reinstated.”
Some commentators go a step further and assert that if the deal succeeds, it has the potential to “alter the European Union’s centre of gravity, in terms of energy imports.”
Overview
Turkmenistan possesses one of the world’s largest gas reserves. The landlocked country’s main customer is China. However, its exports are limited due to inadequate infrastructure, and Ashgabat is desperately looking for new customers. The Diplomat wrote on 12 February that the recently announced swap deal with Turkey and Iran is a big win for Turkmenistan.
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar wrote on platform X that a deal has been signed between Turkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAS and Turkmenistan’s Turkmen Gaz, to bring Turkmenistan gas to Turkiye.
The deal, which has been in the works for nearly a year, suffered an apparent setback in September 2024 when BOTAS signed an agreement with France’s Total Energies to import 1.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG per year from the United States, starting in 2027.
Neither Ankara nor Ashgabat have commented on whether Turkey’s new LNG contracts will impact its long-standing plans to import gas from Turkmenistan. However, basic market realities indicate that the more gas Ankara imports from other sources, the less it needs Turkmenistan gas.
In March 2024, Turkmenistan President Serdar Berdymukhamedov signed a preliminary agreement with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan for a swap deal between Turkmenistan and Turkiye.
“We have a policy of diversifying routes [for exports],” Berdimuhamedov said, adding that gas from Turkmenistan could reach Turkiye and Europe via two routes: across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan or through Iran.
Natural gas, unless it is liquified, is transported via pipelines. Turkmenistan and Turkiye do not share a border, and no existing pipeline runs directly between them. However, some pipelines connect Turkmenistan to Iran and pipelines that connect Iran to Turkiye. Under a swap, gas volumes imported from Turkmenistan to Iran would be paired with equivalent volumes exported from Iran to Turkiye.
“We took a historic step in Turkey-Turkmenistan energy cooperation,” Bayraktar said in a February 11 post. “Today, we have reached the concrete output of the memorandum of understanding on the development of our cooperation in the field of natural gas, which we signed in Antalya in March 2024.”
Although Bayraktar’s statement did not mention Iran, Turkmenistan’s official state paper, Neutrally Turkmenistan (Neutral Turkmenisytan) reported a February 10 phone call between Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov – former president and father of the current president, and current chairman of the People’s Council (Halk Maslahaty) – and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Chairman Berdimuhamedov, as per the report, announced the BOTAS deal as covering the transit of Turkmenistan gas through Iran to Turkiye.
- Prof. KN Pandita (Padma Shri) is the former director of the Center of Central Asian Studies at Kashmir University.
- This article contains the author’s personal views and does not represent EurAsian Times’ policies/views/opinions in any way.
- The author can be reached at knp627 (at) gmail.com
