China’s still-under-development and unseen, wide-body, 280-set C929 jet found Air China as the first buyer at the Zhuhai air show through a preliminary purchase agreement.
The prototype of the wide-body jet has yet to be revealed and is far from the airworthiness certification stage. It is being built to compete with the Airbus 350 and Boeing 787 families. The order is more of a show of commitment to the domestic industry, as the customer deliveries are meant to start only around 2027.
Shanghai-based, state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (COMAC) already has the narrow-body C919, of which it plans to produce 150 jets annually over the next five years. C919 has already begun flying to Lhasa (Tibet) and is now eyeing routes into Southeast Asia.
China has come a long way since the C909 (earlier ARJ21 Xiangfeng) 78–90 seat regional jet and has plans for the futuristic C939 long-range wide-body as a competitor to the Boeing 777 and Airbus A350.
COMAC has the backing of China’s great industrial capability, capacity, and financial backing, although Chinese aircraft are dependent on foreign aero engines. Last month, COMAC opened offices in Hong Kong and Singapore.
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Western Domination
For a long time, Boeing and Airbus have dominated the manufacturing of large commercial aircraft. Other players in the regional jet market are smaller aircraft that fly at shorter ranges and carry fewer passengers. Bombardier of Canada and Embraer of Brazil are the historical leaders in the regional jet market.
Commercial markets also include turboprops. There are other players in the Business jet market, such as Beechcraft, Cessna, Dassault, Gulfstream, etc. Boeing and Airbus each manufacture roughly 500 narrow-body aircraft and 100 wide-body aircraft annually.
Various manufacturers build around 200 regional jets annually. Boeing has delivered over 20,000 jetliners since the B-707 was inducted in the late 1950s. Airbus, a European multinational aerospace corporation founded in 1970, has built more than 13,500 commercial aircraft. Clearly, the USA and Europe dominate the sector.
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COMAC C909
COMAC’s ARJ21 regional jet (78-105 seats) was China’s first jet engine-powered plane to reach commercial production, entering service in 2016. It has recently been rebranded as C909 to sound more like the nomenclature of Airbus and Boeing aircraft.
It has also reduced weight, resistance, and noise and made some improvements in flying costs. COMAC called it “Old friend, New look.”
There are around 124 C909s in operation with various Chinese airlines and Indonesian carrier TransNusa. Hainan Airlines’ low-cost subsidiary, Urumqi Air, will order 40 C909-700 jets for delivery between 2025 and 2032. Hainan said that the basic list price of each C909 is $38 million, but substantial discounts will be applied, a process typical for aircraft purchases.
COMAC C919
The C919 single-aisle narrow-body jet has been in service since 2023. China’s “big three” state-owned airlines – Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern are already flying the C919.
The aircraft resembles the McDonnell Douglas MD-80/MD-90, which was earlier produced under license in China. The dimensions of the C919 are quite similar to those of the Airbus A320.
Russian Antonov designed the supercritical wing, which has twin rear-mounted General Electric CF34 engines. In March 2023, reports emerged that the Chinese CJ-1000A engine flight test campaign had started on a Xi’an Y-20 test aircraft.
To date, around 12 aircraft have been delivered, and various Chinese airlines have ordered close to 1,000. COMAC said it wanted to expand its annual production capacity to 150 airliners within five years.
COMAC C929
The 280—to 400-seat C929 is an under-development long-range twin-engine jet meant to fly a range of 12,000km, longer than the distance from Beijing to New York. It is meant to be in the same category as Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A330 Neo.
Originally called CR929, it was renamed C929 in 2023 after Russia’s state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) left the China-Russia joint venture developing the aircraft due to uncertainties linked to international sanctions on Russia.
For Russia, it was to be the successor to the Il-96. Russia would contribute its knowledge, and China would provide the resources. UAC withdrew from the project in August 2023.
The aircraft will initially use 340–390 kN thrust turbofans supplied by Rolls-Royce or General Electric. Russian Rostec’s UEC and Aero Engine Corporation of China have also been working on an aero engine.
The proposal was for a more powerful version of the Aviadvigatel PD-14 developed for the Irkut MC-21 with a 50 percent scaled-up core. The Russian engine Aviadvigatel PD-35 for the twinjet is expected to enter service in 2025.
Technically, China could also have used AI-38 engines co-developed by China and Ukrainian Ivchenko-Progress from the 225 kN Progress D-18T of the An-124/An-225. However, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this option has not been pursued. China has been working independently on the CJ-2000 engine.
The C929 prototype will reportedly be released soon and make its maiden test flight. Type certification of aircraft by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is important for flights around the world.
COMAC’s Ambitious Plans
COMAC, founded in 2008, brought several of its planes to the Zhuhai air show this year and also took fresh orders for the C919 and C909 jets. Hainan Airlines placed an order for 60 C919 and 40 C909 regional jets. Guizhou Airlines signed a purchase agreement for 30 C909 planes.
COMAC has forecast that over the next 20 years, 43,863 jet aircraft, valued at a combined $6.6 trillion, will be delivered to clients around the world. Of these, 73 percent will be single-aisle jets.
China’s Mostly Western Airliners
China has a huge civil aviation sector, with nearly 16 percent of global civil aircraft. Its civil aircraft fleet comprises close to 3,500 medium—to large-sized aircraft and 240 small-sized aircraft.
The fleet size is expected to grow to 8,500 by 2041. China has 20 scheduled airlines, including low-cost ones. Nearly 50 percent of commercial jetliners operating in China are Boeing airplanes.
Boeing has a B-737 completion and delivery center in Zhoushan, China. Airbus established its presence in China in 1994, and its first final assembly line, outside its four founding European countries, was opened in Tianjin in 2008. It produces the A320 family of aircraft.
They also set up a completion and delivery center for the A330 in 2017. Brazil’s Embraer set up a joint-venture aircraft factory in Harbin, China, in 2003 but later closed it in 2016. Embraer delivered 100 commercial aircraft to Chinese airlines.
China’s Military Transport Aircraft Production
China started in the 1950s by building many Soviet-designed transport aircraft for the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) under license or by reverse engineering. These were the Y-5 (licensed Antonov An-2), Y-7 (copied An-24), Y-8 (copied An-12), and Y-9 (variant of Y-8).
Finally, China built an original Chinese-designed large transport aircraft, Xi’an Y-20. The project began in July 2007, and the first flight occurred in January 2013.
They have built over 70 of this 66-ton payload aircraft. To put it in context, Boeing C-17 Globemaster III carries 77.5 tons, and the Ilyushin Il-76, 42 tons. Y-20 currently uses Russian Soloviev D-30KP-2 engines, but a Chinese engine (WS-20) is under development. They already have an aerial tanker and Airborne Early Warning (AEW) variant. Clearly, China has significant transport aircraft production experience.
Indian Civil Aviation Market
India is one of the fastest-growing civil aviation markets. India is already the third-largest domestic aviation market in the world and is expected to overtake the UK to become the third-largest global air passenger market by 2025.
Indian aviation contributes 5 percent of the national GDP and plays a crucial role in promoting tourism and cargo movement. By 2025, India will have 220 airports with scheduled flights, compared to 140 in 2022.
Cumulatively, for the fiscal period April to October 2024 (7M FY2025), domestic traffic reached 932 lakh passengers, up 5.9 percent from last year. The current airliner fleet of around 750 aircraft will more than double in five years. One hundred percent FDI is cleared in most sectors of civil aviation.
Huge MRO Market
India has a huge Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) market for civil and military aircraft and engines. The Indian MRO industry was just $1.7 billion in 2021, constituting less than 1.5% of the global MRO market worth US$45 billion.
The Indian market is expected to be $4.0 billion by 2031, growing faster than any other country. India thus has great potential to be a significant regional MRO hub and gradually strive to establish its foothold in the global supply chain.
Setting up an MRO is highly capital-intensive and has a long break-even time. It requires continuously reskilled manpower, repeat investments in tooling, and certification from safety regulators such as the FAA and EASA and global OEMs such as Airbus, Boeing, and many others.
Transport Aircraft Production Experience India
HAL built 89 Hawker Siddeley HS 748 aircraft under license starting early 1960s. HAL manufactured 125 Dornier 228 twin-turboprop STOL utility aircraft under license.
HAL’s “Made-in-India” Hindustan-228 aircraft is a 19-seater Indian variant of the DO-228 aircraft. The National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL) “Saras” light utility aircraft program is still in the early stages of design and development. One prototype was lost in a crash in 2009.
The Indo-Russian Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) joint venture was called off because of technology transfer issues. The HAL/NAL Indian Regional Jet (IRJ) is planned to be 90 seater with a targeted first flight around 2026.
40 EADS-CASA C-295MW transport aircraft are being built in India by a Tata Consortium and will reach 80 percent indigenization by 2031. India is already building aerostructures for Boeing AH-64 Apache combat helicopters, Boeing’s CH-47 Chinook helicopters, Sikorsky S-92 helicopters, and C-130J for global customers.
Tata Group is working with GE to manufacture CFM International LEAP engine components in India. Lockheed Martin selected TASL to produce F-16 wings in India.
Many Indian MSMEs and start-ups are in aircraft systems production. India does have manufacturing and assembly skills but lacks original design work. Essentially, we are still only a good license production expert.
Choices & Challenges India
China had got into transport aircraft production in the 1950s, including through reverse engineering. The world-class Y-20 has been built in large numbers. China has pumped huge funds into Research and Development (R&D). China’s development timelines have been fairly short. China also leveraged its large airliner orders to get Western manufacturers to set up assembly and manufacturing facilities. Albeit, they are still struggling with aero-engines.
India has not yet leveraged the large airliner orders. The narrow-body airliner market is huge. India must insist Boeing and Airbus set up assembly lines in India and give component orders to local manufacturers.
Large groups like Tata, with aerostructure manufacturing experience and simultaneously operating a huge airline, can bag more manufacturing orders. In the civil aviation sector, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) manufactures aircraft parts for Boeing and Airbus. It is also manufacturing Dornier 228 for RUAG of Switzerland, but it is a minuscule part.
India must set up an independent authority similar to the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) to promote civil aviation aircraft development. The authority must function under the PMO as it would involve inter-ministerial support.
It may subsume the transport aircraft building facilities of HAL and NAL. The agency can also be tasked with working on the MTA for the IAF. India has a great capability for aerostructures and can make global-standard aircraft wings, tailplane surfaces, fuel tanks, and control surfaces, among other things. India must insist on such manufacturing for aircraft ordered by India.
The agency must also build MRO facilities. We may seek foreign consultancy for aircraft design. India must insist on foreign OEMs setting up engine manufacturing in India through the joint-venture route.
To begin with, we must do all the interior work in India. Why cannot India make aircraft seats and other interiors locally? Avionics is another area where India is way behind, and that requires task force-like action.
Way Ahead
With the sense of purpose with which Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) is being driven, civil aircraft production and MRO in India should get a major boost. The Ukraine conflict has shown the fragility of supply chain markets. Aviation is a strategic sector. India has a huge market. The dynamics of such high demands have to be exploited.
The West is moving out of China. Europe has a high cost of production. India is the next best destination. It has high-quality manufacturing capabilities and skilled manpower. It also has large land banks near airports, especially the newer Greenfield ones.
Government policies are becoming more attractive for promoting manufacture and shifting MRO to India. The government of India must interact with the airlines so that all new purchases can be coordinated between them to get a better deal. It must also exploit large orders to link with setting up facilities in India.
Finally, India has to invest much more in R&D. It is important to develop your own designs and have your own patents. India is a rising star, so the time to act is now, lest we miss another golden opportunity. It has to be a whole-of-nation approach.
- Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) is an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot and former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. He has been decorated with gallantry and distinguished service medals while serving in the IAF for 40 years.
- He tweets @Chopsyturvey
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
