The Ukraine war has entered a new, dangerous phase. Russia has dramatically increased the intensity of its aerial attacks on the country. On July 9, Russia launched its largest aerial attack since the start of the war, launching a record 728 drones and hypersonic missiles.
Meanwhile, Kyiv is running low on air defense missiles, with further deliveries from the US temporarily halted.
On the one hand, the lack of air defense missiles is allowing the Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) fighter jets to penetrate much closer to the frontlines and launch attacks at close range. Hitherto, Russian fighter jets were mostly launching missiles from standoff distances.
On the other hand, it is forcing Ukraine to mobilize its ragtag air force for air defense purposes.
This will have grave implications for Kyiv.
One, it will expose the Ukrainian jets to Russian ground-based air defense systems.
Two, it will open many possibilities for close-quarter dogfights between the Russian and Ukrainian fighter jets.
According to the FighterBomber Telegram channel, the depletion of air defense missile stocks has significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to keep Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) fighters at standoff distances.
As a result, the channel warns, Russian fighters are now operating much closer to the line of contact, conducting DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses) missions and targeting Ukrainian air defense systems.
This shift has led to close-range aerial engagements between Russian and Ukrainian fighter aircraft.
However, these close-range dogfights between the Russian and Ukrainian fighter jets will have a predictable outcome.
For the Ukrainian Air Force, for all its bravery and courage, is, at the end of the day, composed of mostly older-generation donated aircraft and hastily trained pilots. In close-range dogfights, they don’t stand a chance against the numerically superior, technologically advanced, and better-trained Russian Air Force.
Ukraine has, so far, lost four F-16 fighter jets, the last one less than two weeks ago, and three in the previous three months. However, if things continue in the same direction and Kyiv does not receive an immediate, urgent delivery of Patriot missiles from the US, then these losses are set to mount.
So far, the Ukraine war has been known as the graveyard of Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), including the Western-origin and much-hyped Abrams and Leopard tanks. But soon, Ukraine could also turn into a graveyard for the US’s F-16 Fighting Falcons.
However, the fast-depleting stocks of the crucial Patriot missiles are the first link in this long chain of events.
Depleting Stocks Of Patriots
On July 8, an exclusive story in the British newspaper, The Guardian, made the alarming revelation that the US is left with just 25% of all Patriot missile interceptors needed for the Pentagon’s military plans.
“The United States only has about 25% of the Patriot missile interceptors it needs for all of the Pentagon’s military plans after burning through stockpiles in the Middle East in recent months, an alarming depletion that led to the Trump administration freezing the latest transfer of munitions to Ukraine,” it said.
According to reports, the depleting stockpiles had fallen so low that they could endanger US security and jeopardize potential US military operations.
“The situation also became more acute following Trump’s move to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities last month, when the US fired close to 30 Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles fired in performative retaliation at the Al Udeid base in Qatar,” it said.
Notably, the US could only produce 600 of these Patriot missile interceptors every year. However, Iran alone is believed to have more than 1,000 ballistic missiles even after the latest 12-day war with Israel.
This could endanger the multiple US military bases in the Middle East.
According to the report, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signed off on the letter halting Patriot deliveries to Ukraine after learning of the alarming depleting stockpiles.
This could mean that it would be some time before the Patriot missile deliveries are reinstated to Ukraine.
In the meantime, Kyiv, bereft of any other option, is forced to scramble its fleet of donated F-16s and some remaining Soviet-era jets like the MiG-29s, for air defense roles, to shoot down incoming drones and missiles, and to challenge emboldened Russian jets, which are now penetrating right up to the frontlines.
Ukrainian Air Force No Match To Russian Air Force
However, the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) can not challenge the might of the Russian Air Force in close-range dogfights for much longer.
The UAF has approximately 70 fighter aircraft, comprising nearly 40 MiG-29s, 26 Su-27s, and a few donated F-16s and Mirage-2000s. Especially the F-16s were hailed as a game-changer for Ukraine.
Furthermore, UAF fighter pilots have to be trained on Western fighter jets such as the F-16.
They are facing off against the numerically superior Russian Air Force, which comprises modern fighter jets such as the Su-35, Su-30, and MiG-31.
In close-range dogfights or even in a BVR fight, the UAF cannot hold off Russian fighter jets for much longer.
A Graveyard For F-16s?
The UAF has already lost four F-16s in combat, three of them during the previous three months.
Ukraine lost its first F-16 in August 2024, just weeks after inducting them into service. This year, Ukraine has lost F-16s in three consecutive months of April, May, and June.
If Kyiv does not receive immediate deliveries of the Patriot and other air defense missile systems, then Ukrainian F-16 losses could mount in the coming weeks and months.
Notably, the Western alliance has promised to donate as many as 80 F-16 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine. However, Kyiv has not declared how many it has already received, except that the deliveries are running woefully behind schedule.
These donated F-16s, flown by hastily trained Ukrainian pilots, are set to be mauled by the Russian fighters.
The Ukraine war has been known as the graveyard of Western MBTs. Soon, it could also earn the epithet of the graveyard of F-16s.
Trump must act swiftly if he wants to avoid a PR disaster for the American jets flown by over two dozen countries.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
