On the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion, Kyiv finds itself in an increasingly difficult place as the United States is threatening to cut Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system unless President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agrees to the Rare Earth minerals deal.
Starlink, owned by Musk’s Space X, is a critical communications tool for Ukraine, particularly for the country’s armed forces on the frontline. Losing access to Starlink at this critical juncture when US aid is dwindling and Russian forces are advancing on the country’s eastern front can be disastrous for Kyiv.
Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that US and Ukrainian officials discussed Ukraine’s continued access to Starlink after Zelenskyy turned down an initial proposal from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week.
One of the sources, who was briefed on the talks, said the issue of access to Ukraine’s critical minerals was raised once again on February 20 during the meeting between Keith Kellogg, the US special Ukraine envoy, and Zelenskyy.
During the recent meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine was warned that it would face the imminent shutdown of the critical internet service if it did not reach a deal on rare earth minerals soon.
“Ukraine runs on Starlink. They consider it their North Star,” said the source who requested anonymity. “Losing Starlink … would be a massive blow.”
Zelenskyy’s Swift U-Turn On Critical Minerals Deal
Only last week, Zelenskyy rejected a deal offered by the US demanding US$500 billion in mineral wealth from Ukraine to repay Washington for wartime aid, saying the agreement offered no specific “security guarantees” for Kyiv.
“I did not allow ministers to sign the agreement because it is not ready. In my opinion, it does not protect us. It is not ready to protect us, our interests,” Zelenskyy said on February 15 during a briefing with reporters in Munich. He added that the deal should be “connected with security guarantees” and that “I don’t see this connection in the document yet. It should be clear; it’s important.”
However, realizing the criticality of continued US support for Ukraine’s survival, Zelenskyy has considerably toned down his criticism of the deal within a week.
Following his meeting with Kellogg, Zelenskyy said on Friday that the US and Ukrainian teams were working on an agreement.
“Ukrainian and U.S. teams are working on a draft agreement between our governments. This agreement can add value to our relations—what matters most is getting the details right to ensure it truly works. I look forward to just results,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media platform X.
Zelenskyy’s swift U-turn on the deal followed harsh criticisms from not only the US administration but also from some of his European allies.
On February 21, the White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said the White House was “very frustrated” with Zelenskyy after he leveled “unacceptable” insults at US President Donald Trump earlier this week.
“We presented the Ukrainians really an incredible and a historic opportunity,” Waltz said, adding that it would be “sustainable” and “the best” security guarantee Ukraine could hope for.
While the US criticism was anticipated, some of Zelenskyy’s European allies also criticized his handling of the situation.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda wrote on Platform X: “A few minutes ago, President @ZelenskyyUA called me. We had a candid conversation on the heels of the recent meetings with General Kellogg and other developments. I conveyed to him that we consistently believe there is no other way to stop the bloodshed and achieve lasting peace in Ukraine except with the support of the United States. For this reason, I suggested to President Zelenskyy to remain committed to the course of calm and constructive cooperation with @POTUS Donald Trump.”
This was a clear message from Poland, a steadfast Ukraine ally, to Zelenskyy to tone down his criticism of the US deal and President Trump.
Meanwhile, US officials are confident that Zelenskyy will sign the deal sooner than later.
“Look, here’s the bottom line: President Zelensky is going to sign that deal, and you will see that in the very short term. And that is good for Ukraine,” Waltz told the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) attendees.
The Elon Musk/Starlink Factor In Ukraine War
Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned Starlink has played an important role in the Ukraine war. Just two days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Starlink agreed to supply Ukraine with the technology to ensure they had reliable internet connectivity and communication.
On February 26, 2022, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, corresponded with Musk over Twitter, asking for Starlink services to be activated in Ukraine to resist Russia’s invasion.
“@elonmusk, while you try to colonize Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations…,” Fedorov wrote on Platform X (formerly Twitter).
Within 12 hours of the appeal, Musk replied, “Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route.”
The activation of Starlink in Ukraine effectively guarded the country against internet blackouts. By May 2022, over 150,000 Ukrainians were using Starlink daily. As the technology was rapidly integrated into the country’s communications infrastructure, Kyiv’s military began applying it “creatively on the battlefield, such as using it to control unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance aerial vehicles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles.”
Starlink allowed Ukraine’s forces to share real-time drone feeds between units and communicate in areas where combat has disrupted cellphone service. Starlink connectivity was especially advantageous in operating First-Person-View (FPV) Drones. FPV drones have proved to be one of the most important tools in Ukraine’s arsenal in this war.
By September 2022, the US Department of Defense has agreed to pay the bill for Starlink services in Ukraine. However, Elon Musk’s stance on Ukraine’s use of Starlink has shifted multiple times during the three-year war.
Starlink’s Changing Stance On Ukraine War
It is pertinent to note that for the first six months or so, Musk provided Ukraine with Starlink connectivity, more or less free of cost. However, even during the first six months, USAID and Poland paid some of the bills for Ukraine’s use of Starlink services.
However, by September 2022, Musk was asking the US Department of Defense to foot the bills. Starlink said it would cost almost US$400 million to continue operating for another twelve months.
In February 2023, SpaceX made another significant shift regarding the use of Starlink in the war. At this point, the company said it would restrict Ukraine’s use of the technology for “offensive” military purposes.
Gwynne Shotwell, president and chief operating officer of SpaceX, said that the company’s intent was “never to have [the Ukrainian military] use it for offensive purposes.”
In one notable incident, Musk himself acknowledged that he refused a Ukrainian request to activate his Starlink satellite network in Crimea’s port city of Sevastopol to aid an attack on Russia’s fleet there, saying he feared complicity in a “major” act of war.
On September 8, 2023, Musk wrote on Platform X: “There was an emergency request from government authorities to activate Starlink all the way to Sevastopol. The obvious intent being to sink most of the Russian fleet at anchor. If I had agreed to their request, then SpaceX would be explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation.”
Musk’s decision not to provide Starlink connectivity resulted in the failure of Ukraine’s audacious offensive in Crimea.
By April 2024, Ukrainian frontline soldiers often complained that the Starlink connectivity speeds had decreased substantially. Ukrainian military officials also raised the alarm that Russia was gaining unauthorized access to Starlink terminals, a charge Musk rejected.
However, despite all these setbacks, Starlink connectivity provided Ukrainian forces a significant advantage over Russian troops. If the US decides to cut Ukraine’s access to Starlink, this could be disastrous for Ukraine’s armed forces.
“Losing Starlink would be a game changer,” Melinda Haring, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Reuters.
Zelenskyy: Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
For now, Zelenskyy is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he does not sign the deal on critical minerals, he risks losing the Starlink connectivity and a possible collapse of the Ukrainian frontline positions in the country’s east.
At the same time, he cannot let Ukraine become a neo-economic colony of the US and compromise his country’s long-term economic recovery.
Zelenskyy’s best-case scenario seems to involve convincing the US administration to moderate the harsh terms of the minerals deal, which many analysts have termed worse than the conditions imposed on Germany following its defeat in the First World War.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK. He is interested in studying Geopolitics from a historical perspective.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
