OPED By Air Marshal Anil Khosla (R)
Bangladesh has been actively pursuing the modernization of its armed forces, and the Chinese J-10C, a fourth-generation-plus multi-role fighter jet boasting advanced avionics, weapon systems, and cost efficiency, has featured on its wish list.
This news about the possible acquisition of 16 J-10C aircraft follows Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan’s visit to China last month, during which he reportedly expressed Bangladesh’s desire to acquire multirole combat aircraft and attack helicopters.
The announcement has come at a time of high geopolitical tensions in South Asia, when military acquisitions are closely watched. The move has sparked an exciting debate, with proponents lauding it as a transformative step for Bangladesh’s air force, while critics warn of strategic, financial, and operational pitfalls.
The J-10C: Features And Capabilities
The J-10C, known as the ‘Vigorous Dragon,’ is claimed to be a fourth-generation multirole combat aircraft equipped with the Chinese-manufactured WS-10B engine. China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation has developed it. J-10C represents an evolutionary version of the J-10 series.
The J-10C was first unveiled to the Chinese public in July 2017 and has been operational since 2018. It features significant advancements over earlier variants. Reportedly, its key features include:-
- The J-10C is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, which offers enhanced detection, tracking, and targeting capabilities in all weather conditions.
- Advanced avionics and integrated electronic warfare systems for jamming enemy radar and countering electronic threats to enhance survivability.
- The jet can carry various armaments, including the PL-15 beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile (BVR-AAM), which has a range of over 200 km.
- It is capable of both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions; the J-10C is well-suited for diverse operational scenarios.
- With a delta wing-canard configuration and an optional thrust-vectoring engine, the J-10C claims excellent maneuverability and agility in combat.
Bangladesh’s Defence Modernisation Goals
Bangladesh’s military modernization plan emphasizes upgrading its aging fleet and enhancing its defense capabilities. The Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) currently operates aging platforms such as the MiG-29 and F-7, which are increasingly difficult to maintain and operate in modern combat scenarios. Acquiring J-10C fighter jets could boost the BAF’s operational readiness and deterrence capabilities.
Challenges And Risks
Bangladesh is China’s second-largest arms buyer after Pakistan, the first country to procure J-10C fighters from China. Despite its apparent advantages, acquiring J-10C jets poses several challenges and risks for Bangladesh. Critics argue that the aircraft relies heavily on older technologies and reverse-engineered components.
The aircraft’s performance in simulated combat scenarios, especially against more advanced jets, has not consistently proven superior. Seemingly, the J-10C struggles with issues related to its radar and avionics compared to modern, Western-made jets.
The J-10C’s WS-10 engine has faced reliability issues in high-stress environments, raising concerns about its long-term performance, reliability, and maintenance. Inconsistency in after-sales service and spare parts availability would be another challenge. These risks underscore the need for a comprehensive analysis before making a decision.
Cost Considerations
The J-10C is often marketed as a cost-effective alternative, but this can be misleading. While cheaper than Western alternatives, it still represents a significant investment for Bangladesh, whose defense budget is relatively limited. Higher maintenance and potentially lower service life could negate initial savings.
Chinese loans often accompany these deals, which can lead to long-term economic dependencies. Financing through Chinese loans might deepen Bangladesh’s economic reliance on Beijing, potentially leading to broader strategic vulnerabilities.
India-Bangladesh Relations
India-Bangladesh relations have taken a nosedive after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Bangladesh has witnessed widespread communal violence against minorities, especially Hindus, which has soured Dhaka’s ties with New Delhi, with the latter accusing the Yunus-led interim government of not doing enough and disregarding the atrocities perpetrated by radical Islamist elements against the minority Hindu community in the country.
Furthermore, the emergence of Mohammad Yunus’s government in Bangladesh, with its increasing alignment with China and Pakistan, has added another layer of complexity to India’s diplomatic strategy.
Bangladesh’s growing ties with China and Pakistan are potentially destabilizing, particularly as China seeks to expand its influence in South Asia. India is now carefully monitoring the situation, wary of Bangladesh becoming a vassal state of Chinese influence.
Indian Concern
China’s growing influence in South Asia is evident in its economic and military partnerships. Amid deteriorating ties with India, Bangladesh is increasingly turning to China for military modernization.
Bangladesh’s acquisition of J-10C jets would deepen its defense ties with Beijing, aligning with China’s broader strategy of counterbalancing India’s regional influence.
This could shift the balance of power in South Asia, with India’s proximity and strategic interests making it sensitive to military developments in Bangladesh. The strategic location of Bangladesh, sharing borders with India’s sensitive north-eastern states, makes the issue even more pressing. Acquiring Chinese jets and aligning with China complicate Dhaka’s relationship with New Delhi.
Balancing Foreign Policy
The U.S. and Western nations might view Bangladesh’s deepening defense ties with China as a shift away from a balanced foreign policy. This alignment might affect Bangladesh’s ability to balance relationships with other major powers, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
The response of these powers to Bangladesh’s alignment with China could impact Bangladesh’s access to Western defense technology and economic support. Closer defense ties with China could affect Bangladesh’s relations with Western nations, limiting future cooperation and technology transfer opportunities.
West Or East: A Tight Rope Walk
The likelihood of Bangladesh acquiring Chinese J-10C aircraft, despite having a U.S.-backed government, depends on several factors involving its domestic policies, regional security considerations, and geopolitical strategy.
A U.S.-backed government in Bangladesh might face pressure to align its defense purchases with Western allies to strengthen strategic ties. The U.S. could leverage tools like defense cooperation agreements, sanctions under CAATSA, or military aid to dissuade purchases from China.
On the other hand, Bangladesh has a strong defense relationship with China. The purchase of the J-10C would align with Bangladesh’s historical reliance on Chinese equipment.
Bangladesh has sought to balance its foreign relations by engaging with Western and Eastern powers. While Bangladesh’s defense ties with China make the J-10C a plausible acquisition, a U.S.-backed government might weigh the risks of straining relations with Washington.
The decision will hinge on Bangladesh’s ability to navigate the competing pressures from the U.S. and China while prioritizing its defense modernization needs and regional strategic interests.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s potential acquisition of Chinese J-10C fighter jets represents both an opportunity and a risk. On one hand, the J-10C would significantly enhance the Bangladesh Air Force’s capabilities, improving its deterrence and operational flexibility.
On the other hand, the move comes with substantial financial, operational, and geopolitical challenges that could outweigh the benefits if not carefully managed.
The decision also carries significant implications for Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy. Before finalizing the deal, Bangladesh must rigorously evaluate whether the J-10C’s benefits outweigh its risks, particularly regarding long-term reliability and strategic autonomy.
This careful evaluation is crucial to ensure that the J-10C acquisition is a transformative step forward rather than a strategic misstep for Bangladesh.
- Air Marshal Anil Khosla PVSM, AVSM, VM, is a former Vice Chief of Air Staff (VCAS) of the Indian Air Force and AOC in C of Eastern Air Command.
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- He tweets at: @AnilKhosla16
